This article was originally published on Jan. 27th, 2026. An edited version appears in the April 30, 2026, issue.
Since President Trump began his second term, it’s often hard to keep up with the breakneck pace of developments. Amid the chaos of his meetings in Davos, Switzerland, last week, followed by the events in Minneapolis, you could be forgiven for missing that there were two fresh developments in the fight over tariffs.
Here’s a quick recap. On Jan. 18, the President threatened 25 percent tariffs on eight European nations, including the U.K., France and Germany, unless the U.S. is allowed to purchase Greenland. The European Union leadership (probably sighing and saying ‘pas encore …’) warned it might respond with retaliatory tariffs of up to €93 billion, or $109 billion, on various American exports.
Just two days later, Trump upped the ante, threatening 200 percent tariffs on French exports to the U.S. The raison d’être? French president Emmanuel Macron is reportedly reluctant to join Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace,” a coalition of nations the administration is organizing.
The board was originally devised to oversee the peace agreement in Gaza, but Trump has recently made statements suggesting he sees it as his own version of the United Nations. He’s also charging a $1 billion entry fee. My colleagues at Impact Databank report that French wine and spirits shipments to the U.S. totaled $4.45 billion in 2024.
Mind you, those European nations are already facing U.S. tariffs on wines they send to American consumers. The current tariffs on E.U. countries stand at 15 percent.
But just as quickly as the tariffs were threatened, some faded. By Jan. 22, after meetings at the Davos World Economic Forum, Trump announced a tentative deal was taking shape on Greenland and the tariffs were forgotten. And what of France? Who knows? The tariffs haven’t been mentioned again, but that doesn’t mean they’re off the table.
A Reprieve? Don’t Count on It
The other big question hanging over all of this is the pending Supreme Court decision on Trump’s authority to unilaterally impose tariffs under a 1977 law called IEEPA, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Court watchers have been expecting a ruling for weeks now, but the Justices move at their own pace.
Foreign wineries and American companies who sell their wines are hoping the Court rules that the President cannot use IEEPA to implement tariffs. That would remove most of the tariffs currently in place on foreign wines. But anyone thinking that would be the end of the trade wars is unfortunately mistaken.
The President has other trade powers that allow him to implement tariffs absent Congressional approval. The administration could use Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to enact a 15 percent global tariff for 150 days, to start. Simultaneously, the White House could launch multiple trade investigations under a regulation titled Section 301, which allows the president to issue broad tariffs in response to unfair trading practices, after first conducting an investigation.
Trump has championed tariffs since the 1980s. It’s one of his most consistent political beliefs. So is there any doubt the President would try to use those powers to reimpose duties as quickly as possible? And as last week’s saber rattling at Europe shows, tariffs are one of the first weapons Trump reaches for when he wants to take actions against both allies and enemies. After Canadian prime minister Mark Carney gave a powerful speech at Davos, calling out how the U.S. threats over Greenland are impacting NATO, the White House threatened 100 percent tariffs on our northern neighbor, claiming Ottawa was close to signing a free trade pact with China. The Canadian government has denied the charge.
Pain Is Just Arriving
Here’s the most troubling aspect of the wine trade wars—we American consumers haven’t felt the pain yet.
While in Davos, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told CNBC that prices of many products on his company’s sales platform are rising because of U.S. tariffs. Last summer, company officials had denied American consumers were paying more because of tariffs—claiming instead that sellers were swallowing the tariffs’ cost. That’s starting to change. “Some sellers are deciding that they’re passing on those higher costs to consumers,” Jassy told CNBC. “Some are deciding that they’ll absorb it to drive demand and some are doing something in between.”
For a year now, I’ve heard a similarly evolving message—a warning really—from Italian, French and Spanish wineries. They were trying their best to work with their importers to swallow at least some of the tariffs’ cost. They knew that with wine sales weak and consumers smarting from inflation and economic uncertainty, 2025 was not the time to raise prices. Importers helped by bringing in a surplus of wine early, before the tariffs went into effect.
Many have been hoping the Supreme Court would strike down the tariffs before they need to ship more wine. But time is running out. American wineries can’t hold off on importing more corks, bottles and barrels. Foreign wineries can’t hold off price increases any longer.
And Trump’s continued threats show they that they shouldn’t bother. Business owners like predictable conditions and stability. But as the chaos of the past week shows, things are going to stay chaotic for some time. The one thing we can predict is more trade fights.
